Every wave of technology swept in, once it has a subversive impact on the consumer market and a new type of consumer terminal with a wide range of applications is born, the largest single market for semiconductor applications often changes hands. PC processors and smartphone processors are the golden growth points of their respective eras, leading the semiconductor industry to grow rapidly along Moore's Law.
However, the dominance of any one golden growth point cannot last forever. Starting from the third quarter of 2021, smartphone shipments have declined year-on-year for three consecutive quarters, and mobile phone chip manufacturers have had to lower or cut orders. Once the smartphone is no longer a barrier to the semiconductor industry's drought and flood, what will be the next golden growth point for the semiconductor industry?
How similar the road to achievement
On August 12, 1981, a device consisting of an antique TV-like square and heavy display, a flat box-shaped mainframe, and a separate white keyboard entered the public eye with a simple and loud name: IBM PC. Computers at that time were tools for scientific computing by governments or scientific institutions, and IBM was the largest supplier of such mainframes. The emergence of the IBM PC opened the prelude for computers to move from the laboratory to the general public, and also allowed the world to see the dawn of the era of personal computers.
On the face of it, the IBM PC was the grand opening of Big Blue's meteoric rise in the personal computer market. However, it was the semiconductor giant Intel and the software king Microsoft who really took advantage of the situation and led the PC era. Seeking a quick time-to-market for the IBM PC, IBM broke with the then-conventional practice of computer manufacturers to do all the components single-handedly, and instead bought processors and software from third parties—Intel's 8088 microprocessor, Microsoft's DOS operating system system.
For a time, IT elites who were willing to enter the game but could not afford the development of computer software and hardware saw that processors and operating systems could exist independently of computer manufacturing companies and be purchased and integrated as third-party products. In just a few years, a number of new computer manufacturers such as Compaq and Dell have mass-produced IBM PC-compatible machines based on Intel processors and Microsoft software to seize market share. Under the fierce competition of latecomers, IBM's first-mover advantage in personal computers has gradually disappeared, while Intel and Microsoft have become more and more powerful. After Microsoft launched the Windows operating system, Wintel became the unbreakable underlying architecture of the personal computer era, and its dominance continues to this day.
Driven by market demand and inspired by the founder's spirit, Intel followed the "Moore's Law" proposed by founder Gordon Moore to promote the iteration of PC chips, and the chip manufacturing process has been upgraded from 3 microns in the 1980s to today's 10nm enabled PCs to replace more and more mainframe functions, and PC processors became the growth pole of the semiconductor industry from the 1980s to the 2010s.
"The invention of the computer has brought mankind into the information age. As the specific 'executor' of computer information storage and processing, semiconductor chips have played a decisive role in the development of computers. With the continuous optimization of chip technology and the continuous improvement of performance , coupled with the vigorous development of Internet technology, computers have entered thousands of households and become the 'terminal' of the information society." Zhang Yue, deputy dean of the School of Integrated Circuit Science and Engineering, Beihang University, pointed out to a reporter from China Electronics News .
After the PC replaced the mainframe and entered the user's work and consumer life, the emergence and evolution of the mobile Internet made people see the possibility of further lightweight and convenient terminal equipment. In the 2G era, mobile communications have shifted from analog signals to digital signals, and the focus of mobile phone competition has shifted from call quality to product functionality, which has made Nokia brilliant. In the 3G era, mobile communication has shifted from voice communication to data communication. Mobile phones can handle more media formats and provide more information services. A number of smart phone products such as the iPhone have profoundly changed the form of consumer terminals, and mobile phone processors have also become semiconductors. Shifter that increases kinetic energy.
According to the data of the World Semiconductor Trade Association and the Institute of Industrial Intelligence, since 2010, the proportion of computers in the global semiconductor application market has continued to decline, and the proportion of communication ICs led by smartphones has increased year by year, surpassing the number of computer chips for the first time in 2014. The market share reached 34.4%, opening the golden age of mobile communication chips.
Another reason why mobile phone processors can carry the banner of semiconductor growth is that it has taken over the baton of PC processors and has become a continuation of Moore's Law. In 2010, Apple's iPhone 4 was officially launched, and the first Apple-developed processor A4 was equipped with a 45nm process and had more than 30 million transistors. The A15 processor, which will debut with Apple's iPhone 13 series in 2021, uses a 5nm process and has 15 billion transistors. In 11 years, the number of transistors in the same series of mobile phone processors has increased by 5,000 times, and mobile phone processors have become the "number one player" in advanced manufacturing processes.
"In the 21st century, mobile Internet technology and wireless communication technology have gradually shifted the information society's 'terminal' from PC to mobile phone. Many operations that could only be performed on a computer in the past can now be performed by mobile phones. Lower prices gradually replace computers and become the mainstay of promoting the growth of the semiconductor industry." Zhang Yue told reporters.
Qualities of the successor
It is not difficult to see that the growth momentum that the semiconductor industry has supported twice in recent decades is closely related to the epoch-making consumer terminal.
"In order for electronic equipment in the information age to become a leader in the semiconductor industry, at least three characteristics must be taken into account: portability, functionality and ecology." Zhang Yue pointed out.
He said that with the explosive growth of data in today's society and the accelerated pace of life, people's demand for processing information is more inclined to immediate processing, so portability is very important, and electronic devices can only be accepted by more groups if they are readily available. While being portable, devices must have strong data processing capabilities and information interaction capabilities—that is, functionality, in order to adapt to more complex tasks and a wider range of user groups. In addition to the improvement of core hardware such as chips, the coordination of software and surrounding supporting technologies is also required to build an overall ecology and drive technology development and promotion.
Such terminals are often born in a spiral of technological trends that drive changes in consumption patterns, which in turn promote technological innovation.
"The computer and communication markets are growing rapidly with the development of wired communication technology and wireless communication technology, especially the latter has more advantages in terms of application, portability and audience. Therefore, with the popularization of wireless communication technology, wireless communication products It quickly replaced the functions of some computers." Zhang Binlei, a senior analyst at Xinmou Research, told the "China Electronics News" reporter.
Even if there is a subversive technological wave and a brand-new terminal is on the top of the wave, to form a leading force in the growth of semiconductors, it is necessary to not only have a "quantity" pull on the chip, but also need to continuously upgrade the functional requirements to drive the growth of the semiconductor industry. The chip is continuously iteratively optimized.
"The IC products that can lead the growth of semiconductors for a long time are, firstly, large in quantity and wide in scope; secondly, the technology is constantly iterating, and there is a need for continuous innovation and upgrading; thirdly, it has a certain degree of complexity and integration, and has a technical threshold. Fourthly, it must have strong Powerful leading companies are involved." Zhu Jing, deputy secretary-general of Beijing Semiconductor Industry Association and senior economist of Beijing International Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., told a reporter from China Electronics News.
So, after the smartphone chip, will there still be such an IC product that occupies the right place and the right place to support the growth of semiconductors? The reason why the industry has such thinking is that from the third quarter of 2021 to the present, mobile phone shipments have declined year-on-year for three consecutive quarters. According to IDC data, in the first quarter of 2022, global mobile phone shipments reached 314.1 trillion units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.4%. News from the supply chain that leading chip companies downgraded or reduced their orders continued. As the demographic dividend of the mobile phone industry is coming to an end and the replacement cycle is increasing, the driving force of mobile phone chips on the semiconductor industry is no longer drought or flood.
From the terminal level, it is difficult for terminal devices of the same era as mobile phones to surpass smartphones in terms of portability, functionality and ecology. In the same way that wired and wireless communication technologies catalyzed the emergence of PCs and mobile phones, the growth of next-generation semiconductors requires disruptive technologies to open the way.
"As the 'post-Moore era' is approaching, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, and new energy vehicles are booming, it is bound to usher in major changes in the development of key semiconductor technologies and industries. The past few years have been at the intersection of history. In the future, traditional technologies are old and strong, and new technologies are competing with each other. It feels a bit foggy, but this is a window period and an opportunity period. It is optimistic that the semiconductor industry will undergo a finalized subversion in terms of process, integration, and application in the next 5-10 years. Sexual technology." Zhang Yue said.
Zhang Binlei also said that the development of communication technology is relatively mature at present, and it is difficult to introduce new terminal types. Even if 5G is fully popularized, it can only promote the upgrading of handheld communication equipment. The new round of high growth of semiconductors requires subversive concepts.
"At present, there are no products on the market that have the leading power comparable to PC or mobile phone chips, but the concept of such products has long existed, such as chips embedded in the human body." Zhang Binlei said.
Future momentum has emerged
At this stage, smartphone chips are still the largest single market for semiconductor applications, and the growth point of semiconductors that can reach the same level is not yet clear. However, some semiconductor categories that are generally optimistic about growth are expected to inject impetus into the development of the industry in the next few years.
"We can look at the development of semiconductor technology in the next few years from two major dimensions. One is the optimization and innovation of the current computing architecture, and the other is new information carriers and application fields." Zhang Yue pointed out.
Zhang Yue further introduced representative IC products in two dimensions. In response to the optimization and innovation of the current computing architecture, a series of emerging semiconductor technologies have emerged, including new non-volatile memories such as magnetic memory MRAM, resistive memory RRAM, phase change memory PCRAM, and integrated storage and computing chips. New non-volatile memory-related technologies use new physical principles to solve the power consumption bottleneck of traditional semiconductor devices. The integrated storage and computing chip integrates storage and computing, solves the bottleneck of the Von Neumann architecture and the "storage wall" problem, and significantly improves computing power.
Automotive electronics is a representative example of the new information carrier and application field. The trend of new energy and intelligence in automobiles has promoted the rapid development of a series of semiconductor technologies. For example, silicon-based IGBT devices and SiC power devices in automotive-grade power semiconductors can be applied to different levels of new energy vehicles. For high-level intelligent driving and vehicle intelligent control, SoC chips with strong computing power and high energy efficiency and high-performance MCU chips also have a huge market. In addition, future cars will require more and higher-precision sensors.
"The growth trend of the above two categories of products has been verified in recent years. However, whether it can achieve a 'disruptive' effect similar to computers and mobile phones requires further innovation in materials, mechanisms, processes, and integration." Zhang Yue said.
The advent of the era of the Internet of Everything has unleashed unprecedented demand for sensor chips. IC insights data shows that from 2010 to 2019, CIS (CMOS image sensor) became the fastest growing semiconductor product category.
"In the short term, semiconductor products with better growth must be all kinds of sensors represented by CIS. The future is the era of the Internet of Everything, and the automotive, urban, security, home and other markets have huge demand for perception chips. So many The most advanced perception chips will inevitably put forward higher requirements for communication, computing power and storage chips. Therefore, in the next few years, sensors, communication, computing power and storage chips will become the main categories leading the development of the semiconductor market.” Zhang Binlei said.
In China, the implementation of a series of major strategies will also inject growth momentum into specific semiconductor products.
"From the product point of view, we are more optimistic about power/power chips, memory, and intelligent computing chips, because my country is currently promoting carbon neutrality and major national strategies such as 'East and West', and the demand for these types of chips. It's all huge," Zhu Jing said.
It can be said that the semiconductor industry is in a situation where the traditional power has not yet faded away, and the new forces are blooming. From the perspective of the factors that make disruptive semiconductor growth points, around the disruptive technologies that have high expectations such as quantum communication and artificial neural networks, new terminal concepts such as brain-computers, biochips, robots, two-dimensional semiconductor materials, non-Von Nuo The exploration and research on the iterative direction of semiconductors in the post-Moore era such as the Iman architecture are being rolled out, but which one or several elements can stimulate each other to form a closed-loop spiral of technology, products and markets, and derive new semiconductor growth Very, not yet clear. What is certain is that as long as the public's demand for IT services and information consumption is still there, the next golden growth point of semiconductors will appear, but the form may be far beyond people's imagination.
